League One here we come?!

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robinsrule
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If the following article is to be believed, it looks like we might be promoted!

The English Football League will next week tell clubs in Leagues One and Two there is no chance of playing any more games this season and ask them to vote on a method to decide promotion and relegation.

EFL chairman Rick Parry told MPs on the Digital, Culture, Media and Sport select committee on Wednesday morning that a resolution to the season in the third and fourth tiers was only a matter of days away and it now seems a decision could come as early as Monday or Tuesday.

The Athletic understands the EFL board has already received several proposals from clubs, with the current favourite being a points-per-game (PPG) model weighted to reflect how many games the teams have played home and away.

The rationale for this idea is a non-weighted PPG calculation does not take into account the fact that some teams have four home games left, while others have six.

This season across the Football League, the home team has won 46 per cent of the time, with away teams winning only 26 per cent of the games. Over the last six EFL seasons, the average PPG at home is 1.55, compared to 1.19 away.

Under this method, which has been used to decide the tables in English grassroots club rugby union, each club’s PPG would be worked out for their home and away fixtures, then multiplied by 22 for League One, which had 23 clubs this season because of Bury’s demise last summer, and 23 for League Two and then added together to reach a total for the season.

The Athletic understands that a League One club has prepared a detailed explanation of this method, with a full set of final tables, and emailed it to the EFL board.

With the EFL admitting there is no chance of staging its traditional end-of-season play-offs in Leagues One and Two, the top three sides in the League One will be promoted to the Championship, with three going down to League Two, while four come up from League Two and only one goes down, to restore the EFL to its full quota of 72 teams.

The weighted PPG method does not change the top three in League One at all, meaning Coventry City would be crowned champions, with Rotherham United and Oxford United joining them in the Championship next season. The current bottom three — Tranmere Rovers, Southend United and Bolton Wanderers — would still be the bottom three, although Bolton would climb one spot, leaving Southend in last place.

In League Two, Swindon Town would leapfrog Crewe Alexandra into first place, with Plymouth Argyle staying in third but Cheltenham Town climbing over Exeter City to claim the final promotion spot. Stevenage Borough would remain in last place, despite the seven-point deduction Macclesfield Town received on Thursday for failing to fulfill a fixture or pay their players on time.

The Athletic has spoken to two other EFL clubs who said they were aware of this proposal and several others who said they were not, but every club approached said they knew of at least half a dozen different ideas that were circulating around the league. These include using the current tables to settle the finishing positions, a non-weighted PPG model and an idea to only count the first half of the season, which would be the first 22 games in League One and 23 games in League Two.

Some clubs have discussed using more complicated statistical models that factor in how hard each club’s run-in was before the season was suspended in March. There is considerable opposition to these models, though, with one club dismissing them as “hypothetical and unfair”.

The prospect of declaring the season “null and void” appears to have receded, as most clubs acknowledge this would be very unfair on the teams that have got themselves into the promotion place. It would also come with financial and legal risks.

However, any club faced with relegation is almost certainly going to object to being demoted on the basis of PPG, weighted or otherwise. This has led to some clubs suggesting either two or three clubs are promoted this season, with none relegated. Five teams would then be relegated from the divisions above next season, in order to reset them.

But this idea will face strong opposition from the English game’s bosses as it will lead to fixture congestion next season, complicate the distribution of central income and break the terms of the tripartite agreement the EFL, FA and Premier League signed when the top flight broke away from the EFL in 1992.

As things stand, however, both the Premier League and Championship are determined to finish this season’s fixtures in neutral stadiums behind closed doors, which would mean all these issues would be settled on the pitch in the top two divisions.
RegencyCheltenhamSpa
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As discussed on the other thread, this would be a fairest outcome for all clubs. If games cannot be resumed.

And it means no more matches against bloody FGR until at least 2022!
Robin
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The idea of no relegation for teams like Bolton and Southend who were is as good as down is truly baffling. Stevenage too although they've been given a glimmer of hope with Macclesfield receiving a points deduction.
RegencyCheltenhamSpa
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Robin wrote:The idea of no relegation for teams like Bolton and Southend who were is as good as down is truly baffling. Stevenage too although they've been given a glimmer of hope with Macclesfield receiving a points deduction.
Send them down. Poor form and poor play has to be punished as much as good play rewarded.

If let off the hook this season then surely Bolton have to be given the big points deduction next season too, otherwise it as punishment which never happened.
robinsrule
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I couldn’t care less what happens to other clubs if we are promoted!
RegencyCheltenhamSpa
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robinsrule wrote:I couldn’t care less what happens to other clubs if we are promoted!
Haha good point.

Personally, I just want promotion and relegation agreed one way or another even if that doesn’t end up with CTFC going up. If there is no promotion or relegation then it is pointless.
robinsrule
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Yes, I agree. Let’s not be in a situation where 30 games counted for nothing for every team.
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Malabus
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As it would stand.Image

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RegencyCheltenhamSpa
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Great table Mal.

What I love about it is that we are actually meant to play Exeter at home. So the weighted PPG works in our favour!

Had we be due to play them away then they would pip us to 4th.
Artemis
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Sounds very promising. Where was the article published?
Artemis
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RegencyCheltenhamSpa wrote:Great table Mal.

Had we be due to play them away then they would pip us to 4th.
Although if that were the case, we might already have 67 pts and Exeter only 62 :-)
robinsrule
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It was published in The Athletic so it may be pure conjecture. We’ll find out soon enough.
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Malabus
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Artemis wrote:Sounds very promising. Where was the article published?
https://theathletic.co.uk/1800891/2020/ ... -coventry/

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RegencyCheltenhamSpa
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Well if it does happen hopefully the away game at the Stadium of Light comes after restrictions on attending games have been lifted. And I would be cheering on Middlesbrough to get relegated from the Championship too. Cheltenham in the same division as Sunderland, Middlesbrough and Ipswich would be quite a memorable season no matter what happens!

And two good Northern fixtures for me. Quite a contrast to games at Barrow, Gateshead and Carlisle if recent years.

Time to cross fingers and pray all weekend.
little mo
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One idea mentioned in that article is to only count the first half of the season. Does anyone know where FGR were at that stage.
RegencyCheltenhamSpa
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little mo wrote:One idea mentioned in that article is to only count the first half of the season. Does anyone know where FGR were at that stage.
After 23 games FGR were 7th with 37 points. We were 8th with 36 points but with a game in hand over every club above us. Crewe in third on 39, Plymouth 4th on 39.

I don’t think that the half way point is a very good suggestion. When using any modelling or forecasting the more data you have the better. The current 36 or 37 games played provides data from another 13 games - which is more than a quarter of the season.

Declaring quarter of the season null and void is just as bad and pointless as voiding the whole season. It would also add to the cost. If I was a media company, sponsor or fan I would want the money back for those 13 games if they are now ruled as meaning friendlies.
Robin
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Half way point is a bizarre suggestion given another quarter of the season was played afterwards.
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Horteng
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The way I see the options are as below:

1. Scrap the season null and void
2. Promote/ relegate as current table stands
3. Average points per game

The remaining games cannot and should not be played IMO
bigdavejambo
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RegencyCheltenhamSpa wrote:Well if it does happen hopefully the away game at the Stadium of Light comes after restrictions on attending games have been lifted. And I would be cheering on Middlesbrough to get relegated from the Championship too. Cheltenham in the same division as Sunderland, Middlesbrough and Ipswich would be quite a memorable season no matter what happens!

And two good Northern fixtures for me. Quite a contrast to games at Barrow, Gateshead and Carlisle if recent years.

Time to cross fingers and pray all weekend.
an article i saw had Stoke relegated from the championship if PPG was applied at that level
Robin
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So potentially next season we could have Stoke, Ipswich and Sunderland at Whaddon Road, you'd imagine those would be near sell out crowds.*

* assuming the pandemic has cleared up of course.
MSB
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If PPG is used for the whole season then I'm fairly certain Stoke finish about 18th in the Championship. Stoke would only go down in the case of half a season being used and we wouldn't go up in that scenario.
RegencyCheltenhamSpa
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MSB wrote:If PPG is used for the whole season then I'm fairly certain Stoke finish about 18th in the Championship. Stoke would only go down in the case of half a season being used and we wouldn't go up in that scenario.
Stoke’s home PPG is 13th and away PPG 20th. To get relegated it would mean that most of their remaining games are away and the teams below them have enough home games remaining to overtake them.
Robin
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Horteng wrote:The way I see the options are as below:

1. Scrap the season null and void
2. Promote/ relegate as current table stands
3. Average points per game

The remaining games cannot and should not be played IMO
Serious question but how can you promote/relegate as it currently stands when not all teams have played the same number of games. I appreciate I am biased but that's just an absurd suggestion.
RegencyCheltenhamSpa
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Robin wrote:
Horteng wrote:The way I see the options are as below:

1. Scrap the season null and void
2. Promote/ relegate as current table stands
3. Average points per game

The remaining games cannot and should not be played IMO
Serious question but how can you promote/relegate as it currently stands when not all teams have played the same number of games. I appreciate I am biased but that's just an absurd suggestion.
I agree. You have to normalise the table to take into account games played. Hence points per game.

There are however two options for points per game:

1) League ranking based on points per game for current games played. We would rank 4th with 1.78 points per game.

2) Apply the points per game (whether weighted for home/away or not) to remaining fixtures to end up with a modelled points tally, as discussed in the Athletic and Mal’s table above.
Robin
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Fully agree, any solution has to be fair to all so finishing as should be off the table along with null and void.
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Nesty
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As nice as being promoted would be , it would have a very hollow feeling -
RegencyCheltenhamSpa
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Nesty wrote:As nice as being promoted would be , it would have a very hollow feeling -
Yes, not how we would choose to be promoted. However, if that is what happens we will take it. Equally, if Exeter get promoted and we don’t fair enough. What is absolutely essential and critics for the sport is that there is promotion and relegation, however that is decided.
RegencyCheltenhamSpa
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Dale Vince continuing his mission to be football’s biggest gobshite with yet another interview on TalkShite where he rubbishes the story that L1 and L2 are to be finished this week:

https://talksport.com/football/efl/7039 ... ale-vince/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

As we know, usually Vince only lashes out like this when FGR are in trouble, so I guess not finishing the season will be financially damaging to them. No doubt in all the meetings owners have with the EFL he just attacks everyone’s view without making any attempt to form a constructive dialogue. I expect FGR to launch some crackpot legal campaign when the decision is made to end L1 and L2 this week, and he will no doubt be on TalkShite saying how FGR have been penalised, and how he might withdraw them from the League in protest at the tie wearing suits who have stitched him up etc.
ctfc-fan
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RegencyCheltenhamSpa wrote:Dale Vince continuing his mission to be football’s biggest gobshite with yet another interview on TalkShite where he rubbishes the story that L1 and L2 are to be finished this week:

https://talksport.com/football/efl/7039 ... ale-vince/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

As we know, usually Vince only lashes out like this when FGR are in trouble, so I guess not finishing the season will be financially damaging to them. No doubt in all the meetings owners have with the EFL he just attacks everyone’s view without making any attempt to form a constructive dialogue. I expect FGR to launch some crackpot legal campaign when the decision is made to end L1 and L2 this week, and he will no doubt be on TalkShite saying how FGR have been penalised, and how he might withdraw them from the League in protest at the tie wearing suits who have stitched him up etc.
He probably thinks if the league was allowed to finish they would win their remaining games and get promoted either automatically (not looked so not sure if even possible) or through the playoffs.
Robin
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Nesty wrote:As nice as being promoted would be , it would have a very hollow feeling -
Whilst I agree, I would counter by saying not being promoted would feel a lot worse right now.
RegencyCheltenhamSpa
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Robin wrote:
Nesty wrote:As nice as being promoted would be , it would have a very hollow feeling -
Whilst I agree, I would counter by saying not being promoted would feel a lot worse right now.
Especially on our form where it looked like we were storming to promotion, with play offs a back up.

Would be hard lines for either us or Exeter not to go up, or at least not get the chance to play at Wembley.
Jerry St Clair
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RegencyCheltenhamSpa wrote:Well if it does happen hopefully the away game at the Stadium of Light comes after restrictions on attending games have been lifted.
They've been practising social distancing at the SoL for years....etc.....etc.......
Jerry St Clair
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robinsrule wrote:I couldn’t care less what happens to other clubs if we are promoted!
I know this is (possibly?) a tongue-in-cheek comment and I don't want to be a terrible curmudgeon.

But we football fans do ourselves no favours with our pre-dilection for one-eyed myopia. Not caring what happens to other clubs as long as "we're alright jack" is what has allowed the football authorities, media and, dare I say, some clubs, to sh1t on fans for decades.

We should all stick together and demand as fair and equitable outcome for all clubs as far as possible, regardless of how it impacts on the ones we happen to support.
RegencyCheltenhamSpa
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Jerry St Clair wrote:
robinsrule wrote:I couldn’t care less what happens to other clubs if we are promoted!
I know this is (possibly?) a tongue-in-cheek comment and I don't want to be a terrible curmudgeon.

But we football fans do ourselves no favours with our pre-dilection for one-eyed myopia. Not caring what happens to other clubs as long as "we're alright jack" is what has allowed the football authorities, media and, dare I say, some clubs, to sh1t on fans for decades.

We should all stick together and demand as fair and equitable outcome for all clubs as far as possible, regardless of how it impacts on the ones we happen to support.
Indeed. Whether it is us or Exeter who go up, or even one of the others in the play offs if they happen, what all fans of the game should want is that the sporting integrity of promotion and relegation is upheld. I just hope four sides get promoted from L2 to L1. Nice if it is us, but if the best process available dictates Exeter or another goes up then that’s fair.

The truly unfair option is voiding the season.
Robin
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Fully agree voiding the season and not allowing relegation absolutely should not be allowed if we are to maintain integrity. That said I don't see any fair scenario which means Exeter finish above us, they have played an extra game that's clearly unfair to promote them ahead of ourselves.

Points per game is the fairest solution to all teams.
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