Am I correct in thinking this is the equation now? With Bolton playing morecambe, that means that's what we need?
Of course morecambe and Bolton will drop points. I'm just trying to work out the absolute basics !!
7 points from 5 games ?
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No. You forget FGR who have a game in hand on Tranmere, Morecambe and Bolton.
I wrote this on another thread, which explains:
The magic number falls to 80, despite our defeat.
If Tranmere beat Forest Green
Tranmere: max points = 78.
Forest Green: max points = 77.
If Forest Green beat Tranmere
Forest Green: max points = 80.
Tranmere: max points = 75.
If Morecambe beat Bolton
Morecambe: max points = 81
Bolton: max points = 79
If Bolton beat Morecambe
Bolton: max points = 82
Morecambe: max points = 78
If Bolton and Morecambe draw
Bolton: max points = 80
Morecambe: max points = 79
So, the fastest route to promotion is now for Bolton to beat Morecambe, and Tranmere to beat or draw with FGR and then we just need two wins.
I wrote this on another thread, which explains:
The magic number falls to 80, despite our defeat.
If Tranmere beat Forest Green
Tranmere: max points = 78.
Forest Green: max points = 77.
If Forest Green beat Tranmere
Forest Green: max points = 80.
Tranmere: max points = 75.
If Morecambe beat Bolton
Morecambe: max points = 81
Bolton: max points = 79
If Bolton beat Morecambe
Bolton: max points = 82
Morecambe: max points = 78
If Bolton and Morecambe draw
Bolton: max points = 80
Morecambe: max points = 79
So, the fastest route to promotion is now for Bolton to beat Morecambe, and Tranmere to beat or draw with FGR and then we just need two wins.
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But let’s see what happens on Tuesday as FGR play Exeter.
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No. Because FGR can get 80.Ben3 wrote:Ok , thanks. But with goal difference am I right in thinking 7 point from 5 games? If (as if!) morecambe and Bolton win their games when they're not playing each other?
So if Bolton beat Morecambe that would mean:
Cambridge 86
Bolton 82
FGR 80
And if Morecambe beat Bolton it would mean:
Cambridge 86
Morecambe 81
FGR 80
We currently have 72 points, so we would need 8 more points should everyone win all their other games.
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I do feel as though we need a majority of those points to come from the next two games (i.e. at least 4). I don't think we want this to go any further than the penultimate game of the season.
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I do too Hubert. But I also think that two or Morecambe, Bolton and FGR will drop points in the next two games.Hubert Parry wrote:I do feel as though we need a majority of those points to come from the next two games (i.e. at least 4). I don't think we want this to go any further than the penultimate game of the season.
If we win on Tuesday and one or more of the others don’t, then that could be the majority of points needed secured in the next game.
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Indeed. Ben3 took your inspiration Nesty.Nesty wrote:Not another mathematic string !!
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You are right it is a divisive issue, reflecting the derivative nature of discussion on this forum. Is there a better way to integrate all the threads in to one cos that’s better way to keep a log.Ben3 wrote:It would seem it is nesty. Are you getting angry adding them up? If so feel free to subtract this one, I don't want to divide opinion by multiplying the same thread repeatedlyNesty wrote:Not another mathematic string !!
As for the prediction league maths, don’t get Pie started.
I suspect things could be settled next weekend if we beat Stevenage. Just look at the other fixtures FGR have Exeter and Tranmere in their next two games, the scousers have Bradford and FGR, Bolton have Carlisle and Morecambe, they are going to drop points so win next two and we are up.
its the square root of the problem Ben3. Cue Math PunsBen3 wrote:It would seem it is nesty. Are you getting angry adding them up? If so feel free to subtract this one, I don't want to divide opinion by multiplying the same thread repeatedlyNesty wrote:Not another mathematic string !!
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I got five or six puns in my post!Nesty wrote:its the square root of the problem Ben3. Cue Math PunsBen3 wrote:It would seem it is nesty. Are you getting angry adding them up? If so feel free to subtract this one, I don't want to divide opinion by multiplying the same thread repeatedlyNesty wrote:Not another mathematic string !!
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Indeed. You could have found a new angle rather than reusing one of mine. A bit of differentiation is always good with these things. I don’t want to sound too obtuse, but I am fraction disappointed.asl wrote:Cos you're good at going off at a tangent...
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FGR didn’t win so 79 is the maximum we will need.
Ben3’s 27th April date could well be the night!
Ben3’s 27th April date could well be the night!
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If my maths is correct we will be basically promoted if we beat Colchester on Saturday and Bolton beat Morecambe
We'd have 78 points.
FGR and Tranmere at this point can only reach 78 max. Morecambe would only be able to reach 78 max.
So while we wouldn't have that beautiful letter P next to our name we would be essentially up.
We'd have 78 points.
FGR and Tranmere at this point can only reach 78 max. Morecambe would only be able to reach 78 max.
So while we wouldn't have that beautiful letter P next to our name we would be essentially up.
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I think we have to assume that Cambridge will win all their games. That makes our target straight forward.
Let it go Ben3. Just let it go. Don't bite, there's no point. Remember what your therapist said....RegencyCheltenhamSpa wrote:I think we have to assume that Cambridge will win all their games. That makes our target straight forward.
I can't
What is this utter hogwash about targets? "Hoping to win three out of four"? It's absolute insanity. I played football at a low level and never once went into a game thinking: I hope we lose today. Or: "our target was to win three out of four so today we won't try"
Our team have the target to win every game they play (every half according to Duff). We hope to win every game. Any talk of anything other than that is fans managing their own emotions and expectations
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If you read my post and think about what it means you will see the point I am making is we have to win every game.Ben3 wrote:Let it go Ben3. Just let it go. Don't bite, there's no point. Remember what your therapist said....RegencyCheltenhamSpa wrote:I think we have to assume that Cambridge will win all their games. That makes our target straight forward.
I can't
What is this utter hogwash about targets? "Hoping to win three out of four"? It's absolute insanity. I played football at a low level and never once went into a game thinking: I hope we lose today. Or: "our target was to win three out of four so today we won't try"
Our team have the target to win every game they play (every half according to Duff). We hope to win every game. Any talk of anything other than that is fans managing their own emotions and expectations
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On one today aren’t we Ben3. Rough night?Ben3 wrote:We don't have to win every game. There is no imperative at all. We want to win every game - like every game of football ever played
I was making a specific point about the final few games and the title race, not a general philosophical point about football. I will explain here given you are struggling to infer and comprehend:
- Currently we are two points behind Cambridge with one game more to play.
- I believe Cambridge will win all three of their remaining games.
- If Cambridge do win their three remaining games, in order to overtake them and win the title we would have to win every one of our remaining four games.