7 points from 5 games ?

Ben3 · 17 Apr 2021, 18:45

Am I correct in thinking this is the equation now? With Bolton playing morecambe, that means that's what we need?

Of course morecambe and Bolton will drop points. I'm just trying to work out the absolute basics !!

RegencyCheltenhamSpa · 17 Apr 2021, 18:54

No. You forget FGR who have a game in hand on Tranmere, Morecambe and Bolton.

I wrote this on another thread, which explains:

The magic number falls to 80, despite our defeat.

If Tranmere beat Forest Green

Tranmere: max points = 78.
Forest Green: max points = 77.

If Forest Green beat Tranmere

Forest Green: max points = 80.
Tranmere: max points = 75.

If Morecambe beat Bolton

Morecambe: max points = 81
Bolton: max points = 79

If Bolton beat Morecambe

Bolton: max points = 82
Morecambe: max points = 78

If Bolton and Morecambe draw

Bolton: max points = 80
Morecambe: max points = 79

So, the fastest route to promotion is now for Bolton to beat Morecambe, and Tranmere to beat or draw with FGR and then we just need two wins.

RegencyCheltenhamSpa · 17 Apr 2021, 19:06

But let’s see what happens on Tuesday as FGR play Exeter.

Ben3 · 17 Apr 2021, 19:26

Ok , thanks. But with goal difference am I right in thinking 7 point from 5 games? If (as if!) morecambe and Bolton win their games when they're not playing each other?

RegencyCheltenhamSpa · 17 Apr 2021, 19:33

Ben3 wrote:Ok , thanks. But with goal difference am I right in thinking 7 point from 5 games? If (as if!) morecambe and Bolton win their games when they're not playing each other?

No. Because FGR can get 80.

So if Bolton beat Morecambe that would mean:

Cambridge 86
Bolton 82
FGR 80

And if Morecambe beat Bolton it would mean:

Cambridge 86
Morecambe 81
FGR 80

We currently have 72 points, so we would need 8 more points should everyone win all their other games.

Hubert Parry · 17 Apr 2021, 20:24

I do feel as though we need a majority of those points to come from the next two games (i.e. at least 4). I don't think we want this to go any further than the penultimate game of the season.

RegencyCheltenhamSpa · 18 Apr 2021, 07:00

Hubert Parry wrote:I do feel as though we need a majority of those points to come from the next two games (i.e. at least 4). I don't think we want this to go any further than the penultimate game of the season.

I do too Hubert. But I also think that two or Morecambe, Bolton and FGR will drop points in the next two games.

If we win on Tuesday and one or more of the others don’t, then that could be the majority of points needed secured in the next game.

Nesty · 18 Apr 2021, 08:34

Not another mathematic string !!

RegencyCheltenhamSpa · 18 Apr 2021, 09:02

Nesty wrote:Not another mathematic string !!

Indeed. Ben3 took your inspiration Nesty.

Ben3 · 18 Apr 2021, 09:49

Nesty wrote:Not another mathematic string !!

It would seem it is nesty. Are you getting angry adding them up? If so feel free to subtract this one, I don't want to divide opinion by multiplying the same thread repeatedly

RegencyCheltenhamSpa · 18 Apr 2021, 09:52

Ben3 wrote:
Nesty wrote:Not another mathematic string !!
It would seem it is nesty. Are you getting angry adding them up? If so feel free to subtract this one, I don't want to divide opinion by multiplying the same thread repeatedly

You are right it is a divisive issue, reflecting the derivative nature of discussion on this forum. Is there a better way to integrate all the threads in to one cos that’s better way to keep a log.

As for the prediction league maths, don’t get Pie started.

18 Apr 2021, 10:52

I suspect things could be settled next weekend if we beat Stevenage. Just look at the other fixtures FGR have Exeter and Tranmere in their next two games, the scousers have Bradford and FGR, Bolton have Carlisle and Morecambe, they are going to drop points so win next two and we are up.

Nesty · 18 Apr 2021, 11:36

Ben3 wrote:
Nesty wrote:Not another mathematic string !!
It would seem it is nesty. Are you getting angry adding them up? If so feel free to subtract this one, I don't want to divide opinion by multiplying the same thread repeatedly

its the square root of the problem Ben3. Cue Math Puns

RegencyCheltenhamSpa · 18 Apr 2021, 12:06

Nesty wrote:
Ben3 wrote:
Nesty wrote:Not another mathematic string !!
It would seem it is nesty. Are you getting angry adding them up? If so feel free to subtract this one, I don't want to divide opinion by multiplying the same thread repeatedly
its the square root of the problem Ben3. Cue Math Puns

I got five or six puns in my post!

18 Apr 2021, 12:43

Cos you're good at going off at a tangent...

RegencyCheltenhamSpa · 18 Apr 2021, 13:11

asl wrote:Cos you're good at going off at a tangent...

Indeed. You could have found a new angle rather than reusing one of mine. A bit of differentiation is always good with these things. I don’t want to sound too obtuse, but I am fraction disappointed.

RegencyCheltenhamSpa · 20 Apr 2021, 20:00

FGR didn’t win so 79 is the maximum we will need.

Ben3’s 27th April date could well be the night!

Mark Corrigan · 20 Apr 2021, 20:19

If my maths is correct we will be basically promoted if we beat Colchester on Saturday and Bolton beat Morecambe

We'd have 78 points.

FGR and Tranmere at this point can only reach 78 max. Morecambe would only be able to reach 78 max.

So while we wouldn't have that beautiful letter P next to our name we would be essentially up.

20 Apr 2021, 22:34

Carlisle at home should be our official promotion party, just wish us fans could be allowed in to see it.

Nesty · 23 Apr 2021, 17:12

send for the fat lady

Ben3 · 23 Apr 2021, 17:34

Tomorrow really is massive. Win and we're there, home and hosed bar the shouting.

Draw and it's on to Tuesday to finish it off

Lose and we need to win on Tuesday

It's all good fun, better to be worrying about this than relegation worries

Shade · 23 Apr 2021, 21:17

I'm only worried about the title

Honestly though, I've only been looking at 1st place for quite a while, feeling that top 3 was almost definitely just a matter of time.

RegencyCheltenhamSpa · 24 Apr 2021, 05:49

I think we have to assume that Cambridge will win all their games. That makes our target straight forward.

Ben3 · 24 Apr 2021, 06:40

RegencyCheltenhamSpa wrote:I think we have to assume that Cambridge will win all their games. That makes our target straight forward.

Let it go Ben3. Just let it go. Don't bite, there's no point. Remember what your therapist said....

I can't

What is this utter hogwash about targets? "Hoping to win three out of four"? It's absolute insanity. I played football at a low level and never once went into a game thinking: I hope we lose today. Or: "our target was to win three out of four so today we won't try"

Our team have the target to win every game they play (every half according to Duff). We hope to win every game. Any talk of anything other than that is fans managing their own emotions and expectations

ctfc-fan · 24 Apr 2021, 06:53

I think Cambridge might just do it you know, sadly.

RegencyCheltenhamSpa · 24 Apr 2021, 06:57

Ben3 wrote:
RegencyCheltenhamSpa wrote:I think we have to assume that Cambridge will win all their games. That makes our target straight forward.
Let it go Ben3. Just let it go. Don't bite, there's no point. Remember what your therapist said....

I can't

What is this utter hogwash about targets? "Hoping to win three out of four"? It's absolute insanity. I played football at a low level and never once went into a game thinking: I hope we lose today. Or: "our target was to win three out of four so today we won't try"

Our team have the target to win every game they play (every half according to Duff). We hope to win every game. Any talk of anything other than that is fans managing their own emotions and expectations

If you read my post and think about what it means you will see the point I am making is we have to win every game.

Ben3 · 24 Apr 2021, 07:05

We don't have to win every game. There is no imperative at all. We want to win every game - like every game of football ever played

RegencyCheltenhamSpa · 24 Apr 2021, 07:14

Ben3 wrote:We don't have to win every game. There is no imperative at all. We want to win every game - like every game of football ever played

On one today aren’t we Ben3. Rough night?

I was making a specific point about the final few games and the title race, not a general philosophical point about football. I will explain here given you are struggling to infer and comprehend:

- Currently we are two points behind Cambridge with one game more to play.
- I believe Cambridge will win all three of their remaining games.
- If Cambridge do win their three remaining games, in order to overtake them and win the title we would have to win every one of our remaining four games.

Shade · 24 Apr 2021, 10:47

"I think we are going to have to win all of our remaining games if we are to win the league" takes any debate out of it.

Ben3 · 24 Apr 2021, 14:27

Ok, yes potentially I was a bit tetchy

. I'm a grown adult and a bit nervous to be honest

Apologies RCS, don't let me interrupt the good spirit that's broken out on the site