What can we achieve in League One with the current set-up?

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

In the Plymouth debrief Fuller raises the question of whether we will struggle or kick on next season.

Personally, with the current facilities and average crowd I do not think we should expect to be better than 12th, which is probably overachieving for our size.

Bottom third is probably where our facilities and crowds warrant, and winning the bottom half every season would be a tremendous achievement.

If we can get 5,000 or 5,500 average crowds and a new stand and better revenue generating facilities then top ten with a playoff flirtation would be aspiration if still unlikely.

Also depends how long Duff stays for as until we are properly established at this level if Duff leaves that would mean struggle and potential relegation.

What do people think - am I being optimistic or pessimistic ?

[London Exile]

I think you’re pretty spot on.

So long as Duff remains then I think we’ll be able to finish around where we are now with what we’ve got. However, if we want to establish ourselves at L1 level then we need a ground development that can generate off field revenue to support that.
I think our attendances have been reasonable this season but we could really do with averaging 4000 home supporters to help generate more matchday revenue (that would probably give us the 5500 av attendances you’ve stated RCS)

It’ll be interesting to see what plans the club has this pre season with off field developments. I notice the Trust mentioned looking at tackling the PRE redevelopment too. All welcome positivity but how they plan to raise the finance is key. Ideally we’ll look to capitalise on the feel good factor Duff and the team have created

[Robin]

A new stand with decent capacity is key to long term development and growth at this level. Something like a 4000 all seater so we can increase overall capacity, increase corporate facilities and most importantly give the Colin Farmer to away fans.

Until that time then we will need to sign and develop players who can be sold on to Championship sides or big clubs in this league for big fees and reinvest that money back into the ground and playing budget. In simple terms let's follow the Accrington model.

Agree with the other comments though that whilst Duff is here and we are able to sell a couple of players for reasonable six figure fees we won't go back down.

[Horteng]

I think we can become an established L1 team under Duff with a mid table finish aim for the next few seasons the build on that.

Sadly a very different story if Duff were to go in my opinion.

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

Consensus amongst posters so far that keeping Duff happy and extending his contract is vital to the future direction of the club.

[Johnsons Red Army]

What do people think - am I being optimistic or pessimistic ?

Realistic is the word I'd use.

Think exactly the same as what you posted.

[Fuller]

I think you’re pretty spot on.

So long as Duff remains then I think we’ll be able to finish around where we are now with what we’ve got. However, if we want to establish ourselves at L1 level then we need a ground development that can generate off field revenue to support that.
I think our attendances have been reasonable this season but we could really do with averaging 4000 home supporters to help generate more matchday revenue (that would probably give us the 5500 av attendances you’ve stated RCS)

It’ll be interesting to see what plans the club has this pre season with off field developments. I notice the Trust mentioned looking at tackling the PRE redevelopment too. All welcome positivity but how they plan to raise the finance is key. Ideally we’ll look to capitalise on the feel good factor Duff and the team have created

Mr Bloxham mentioned in a BBC interview about a month ago that an announcement was imminent with regards to something which I construed to be big, but it might just have been the online/digital ticket operation that was close that he mentioned in another interview? He also some mentioned some much needed tidying up of the ground. For example I notice the steelwork in the CF looks like it is rusting badly in places and hasn't seen a coat of paint since it was built over 20 years ago, leaking gutters, delaminated cladding sheets, dirty rooflights, etc etc.
Much as I would love to see some much overdue ground improvements (and not just essential maintenance,) which are essential for the future growth of the club, I'm not holding my breath. I just don't think the money is there as it has to go into the playing budget to hold our own at this level. But remain forever hopeful in my lifetime .......

[longmover]

notorious 2nd album syndrome next season, its going to be very tough.

[Ben version 4:0]

Duff will be manager at Burnley for the start of next season

[longmover]

Duff will be manager at Burnley for the start of next season

Dyche will have one season to get back into the prem if not then open for Duff (I reckon).

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

I think you’re pretty spot on.

So long as Duff remains then I think we’ll be able to finish around where we are now with what we’ve got. However, if we want to establish ourselves at L1 level then we need a ground development that can generate off field revenue to support that.
I think our attendances have been reasonable this season but we could really do with averaging 4000 home supporters to help generate more matchday revenue (that would probably give us the 5500 av attendances you’ve stated RCS)

It’ll be interesting to see what plans the club has this pre season with off field developments. I notice the Trust mentioned looking at tackling the PRE redevelopment too. All welcome positivity but how they plan to raise the finance is key. Ideally we’ll look to capitalise on the feel good factor Duff and the team have created

Mr Bloxham mentioned in a BBC interview about a month ago that an announcement was imminent with regards to something which I construed to be big, but it might just have been the online/digital ticket operation that was close that he mentioned in another interview? He also some mentioned some much needed tidying up of the ground. For example I notice the steelwork in the CF looks like it is rusting badly in places and hasn't seen a coat of paint since it was built over 20 years ago, leaking gutters, delaminated cladding sheets, dirty rooflights, etc etc.
Much as I would love to see some much overdue ground improvements (and not just essential maintenance,) which are essential for the future growth of the club, I'm not holding my breath. I just don't think the money is there as it has to go into the playing budget to hold our own at this level. But remain forever hopeful in my lifetime .......

I didn’t hear those interviews so thanks for sharing that info. I agree with you about the ground in general and share your hope.

[asl]

Dyche will have one season to get back into the prem if not then open for Duff (I reckon).

Personally, I think Dyche has that job for as long as he wants it. I don't think he'll be sacked if they're relegated - but I do think he's the kind of guy who might say it's time for someone else to take charge in order to take the club forward, again.

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[plymrob]

Naturally, I going have to bring a touch of realism into this limited conversation.

An average gate of 5000 would be amazing, but is probably unrealistic. Yes, if we were Championship and doing OK. But that ain't going to happen.. or if it does it will be short term. We are what we are...

Pushing for the Championship and playoffs would be a really great season, but if we did it, we would /could not sustain it. So, let's please not speculate too much to accumulate, and spend money we maybe do not have on the major ground and facility improvements...

I fancy we will still be where we are; maybe with different income streams helping to pay the newly incurred debts...

Do please put me right in due course, that would be unreal... I'll be the first for the humble pie...

[Robin]

Why would an average crowd of 5000 be unrealistic? Our current average is around 4200 so that's an extra 800 through the gate and with our catchment it should be realistic especially when the new stand is finally built. Look at Lincoln gone from average crowds of 2400 or so to 6000+. If we gave the Colin Farmer to away fans that would mean at least 3000 more away fans per season too.

Of course I'd love to see us in the Championship but our infrastructure and ground just isn't there to sustain it right now so it feels a bit chicken or egg scenario. It's not impossible though as Wycombe, Burton and Yeovil all proved. It's the coming back down that I would fear as all to easy to crash and burn during the inevitable decline.

[Red Duke]

Why would an average crowd of 5000 be unrealistic? Our current average is around 4200 so that's an extra 800 through the gate and with our catchment it should be realistic especially when the new stand is finally built. Look at Lincoln gone from average crowds of 2400 or so to 6000+. If we gave the Colin Farmer to away fans that would mean at least 3000 more away fans per season too.

Of course I'd love to see us in the Championship but our infrastructure and ground just isn't there to sustain it right now so it feels a bit chicken or egg scenario. It's not impossible though as Wycombe, Burton and Yeovil all proved. It's the coming back down that I would fear as all to easy to crash and burn during the inevitable decline.

5 K average attendance is unlikely to be achieved in the current economic times. Attendances are going to be lower all round as I would expect away followings to drop off significanly next season.

There will also be second season syndrome where the novelty of playing L1 football has worn off.

The only way it could happen if we would pushing for promotion and the probability of that is low.

[Warwickshire Robin]

I think everything we can achieve in the future comes from the squad building philosophy. The way smaller clubs like ours survive and prosper is by producing players for sale not just by adding 500 to the average gate (although that will help in terms of atmosphere and so make us more of an attractive destination for players).

In the past we have been used to basically going from season to season signing players on 12 month contracts and having to get a whole new squad together every summer with little or no transfer fees coming in and is very hit and miss in terms of bringing in the right quality of player. We can see now that MD and Micky Moore are trying to think longer term, signing players to longer contracts who have a potential resale value. We need to get the reputation for being a place that the likes of a Ben Williams, a Callum Wright or a Taylor Perry want to come to rebuild their careers should they be unwanted by Prem or Championship clubs. This gives our team youthfulness and hunger and hopefully benefits all parties with us ultimately selling them on for a substantial fee. This then creates the income for on and off field improvements.

I think as everyone says the manager is the most important factor towards achieving this. Under Michael Duff I think we could maintain a mid table League 1 position and our reputation seems to be building as being somewhere players can come and learn and develop. But, it is what happens if/when he moves on to bigger and better things? Can we replace him with someone equally as good and buys into that philosophy? Time will tell I guess!

[Fuller]

We all know it will be very difficult to replace Duffo when he moves on and wouldn’t be surprised if Micky Moore and Wade Elliott moved with him.
In the past when a club legend who has become manager, and has then eventually moved on for whatever reason, we’ve had a period of all round decline. I’m dreading that time.

[everyman]

Consensus amongst posters so far that keeping Duff happy and extending his contract is vital to the future direction of the club.

I expect Duff to move on after taking us as far as we can go realistically,if his career is to develope he wouldn`t want a struggling season on his cv.

[Robin]

We all know it will be very difficult to replace Duffo when he moves on and wouldn’t be surprised if Micky Moore and Wade Elliott moved with him.
In the past when a club legend who has become manager, and has then eventually moved on for whatever reason, we’ve had a period of all round decline. I’m dreading that time.

I agree however every club goes through these periods of growth, maturity then decline. I'd like to think we are somewhere in that maturing period now but decline is inevitable especially if the board cannot fund a new main stand in the coming years.

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

We all know it will be very difficult to replace Duffo when he moves on and wouldn’t be surprised if Micky Moore and Wade Elliott moved with him.
In the past when a club legend who has become manager, and has then eventually moved on for whatever reason, we’ve had a period of all round decline. I’m dreading that time.

I agree however every club goes through these periods of growth, maturity then decline. I'd like to think we are somewhere in that maturing period now but decline is inevitable especially if the board cannot fund a new main stand in the coming years.

What is important is the extent of the decline. If we mature to a regular top half league one team, then decline might just be to a bottom seven league one team.

Timing for a new stand vis a vis the growth-decline cycle stage is vital. Torquay for example had several league two play off campaigns before ending up with a new stand in the national league south.

[Wellwisher]

Duff will be manager at Burnley for the start of next season

Dyche will have one season to get back into the prem if not then open for Duff (I reckon).

Past history would suggest you are correct.

But the Burnley owners who stayed patient with Dyche after they were relegated under him last time have since been bought out* by an American Venture Capital company.

And history also suggests that such people have little or no patience.



* - Or will be when/if they stump up the final payments:
https://www.lancs.live/sport/football/f ... e-22810457

[Robin]

I cannot imagine anyone at Burnley with sense would sack Dyche to appoint Duff if they are relegated. I could however see if Dyche steps down or doesn't get them back up at the first attempt.

[CTFC.Harry]

People seem to think that Duff will go to Burnley but I think it’s unlikely. He’s settled in the area and he’s got a long career of management ahead of him. If Cardiff or Bristol City sack their manager then I wouldn’t be surprised and I wouldn’t begrudge him leaving but Burnley is a long way away and I don’t think Duff will leave us, let alone to go to Burnley for at least 3 or so years.

[asl]

Didn't someone say he still has a property up there? Just think it's not too big a stretch to see him going there, that's all. I hope he doesn't, obviously.

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[Robin]

Also the budget Burnley will have will be huge thanks to the parachute payments, compared that to clubs like Cardiff and Bristol City who are having to dramatically cut their cloth, he'd be mad not to go there if he's given the chance.

[PittvillePundit]

Good thread.

First objective next season must be consolidation in League 1. Easier said than done of course but avoiding any second season syndrome essential. Progress from first half of this season to the second half leads me to be optimistic.

Not sure how it's achieved but some sort of succession planning in anticipation of Duff departing a must. His record is such that an approach from a higher status club must be considered probable (certain perhaps) sooner or later. And who could blame him for taking it? Not me.

Such planning MIGHT help the club retain the reputation it has seemingly acquired for being a good place for developing players to go to. I think that is an essential component of having a chance to become an established L1 club.

[longmover]

People seem to think that Duff will go to Burnley but I think it’s unlikely. He’s settled in the area and he’s got a long career of management ahead of him. If Cardiff or Bristol City sack their manager then I wouldn’t be surprised and I wouldn’t begrudge him leaving but Burnley is a long way away and I don’t think Duff will leave us, let alone to go to Burnley for at least 3 or so years.

I should imagine Duff has a list of clubs he would want to manage at, until they become available I don't think he's in any rush.

[Shade]

Regarding the second season, it's obviously going to be a massive summer. Can we get the boy Wright back again? Perry? N'Lundulu? There are rumours that Etete is being lined up for a Championship club already and I would expect Pollock to be at that level as well. How many of the current squad will be moving on? We already know Pollock and Boyle will need to be replaced, along with at least half the midfield depending on who is offered/signs new deals, and at least 2 strikers minimum, and that's assuming we don't sell May, currently the second top scorer in League 1 (who'd have thunk that 3 months ago). For me, this is going to be quite a squad overhaul coming up and if MD can't get the players he wants then we could be in trouble right off the bat. I don't see how anyone can say, right now, we'll be alright or we should be aiming for this or that. All we can go by, before we have players in the door, is our budget, which we know is almost certainly going to be in the bottom 3.

For those saying we have no chance, though, we had no chance of winning League 2 last season, and we had little chance of staying up, according to some. So if there's no chance of us getting promoted to The Championship next season, I'll stick a tenner on it now. The last two seasons squads have punched well above their weight and there's no reason next years couldn't as well, whoever is in it.

[Robin]

Thing is Shade we were one of the favourites for promotion and some pundits were calling us the best team in the league (Quest TV) during the early part of the season, this season pundits seemed more split on whether we'd struggle or not but going from here to promotion would be such a massive leap. As you say not impossible and Wycombe did it on the lowest budget in the league I believe.

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

We have the best manager outside the Premier League. All it takes is for loans and free transfers to click and excel and anything could happen.

I believe if not not for all the injuries starting with TP and Wright etc in September then we would easily be on 60 or 65 points which is only a handful off the playoffs.

Bear in mind we have been carrying League Two players like Hussey (upgraded now), Williams (upgraded but loans got injured) and Boyle (to be upgraded this summer) then we haven’t gone too badly.

This has been a transition and this summer will see out slower and struggling players like Boyle replaced with players with League One pace. Ben Williams has made such a difference and if we make similar level upgrades we will have a good team.

Duff is worth 15 points on top of what any squad would normally be capable of. So if we can assemble a 55 point squad then with Duff that could be a 70 point season.